Will I still be here?
Chance of reaching 2050
92.1%
Of 1,000 men born in 1990 in the United States who are alive today, 921 will see 1 January 2050. They turn 59 that year.
As time goes by
Each point on the line is the chance of still being alive in that year. Tap or drag the chart to change the year.
UN projection (mortality keeps improving) If 2026 death rates never changed (2050: 90.2%)
Summary
- Years left on average
- 48.0yrs
- Half live past
- 88
- One in four reaches
- 94+
Life expectancy: to about age 84 on average.
Around 2079. The median.
And one in four dies before 77.
Within the next few years
The chance of dying within each period, starting today.
- Within 1 yr0.2%2 in 1,000, before turning 37
- Within 5 yr1.1%11 in 1,000, before turning 41
- Within 10 yr2.2%22 in 1,000, before turning 46
- Within 20 yr6.1%61 in 1,000, before turning 56
- Within 30 yr12.8%128 in 1,000, before turning 66
These are averages for people of the same country, sex and birth year. One person’s real chances vary a lot with health and lifestyle. This is not a medical prediction.
Time left, in numbers
A man born in 1990 in the United States:
92.1% chance of seeing 2050.
Of 1,000 men born in 1990 in the United States and alive today, about 921 will see 2050. For men born in 1960 it is 38.0%. We follow each birth year through the UN’s death rates by age, year after year.
the United States, by year of birth
| Born | Men alive in 2050 | Age half of men pass | Women alive in 2050 | Age half of women pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 3.6% | 87 | 6.5% | 89 |
| 1960 | 38.0% | 86 | 47.6% | 88 |
| 1970 | 69.7% | 86 | 78.0% | 89 |
| 1980 | 84.4% | 87 | 89.7% | 89 |
| 1990 | 92.1% | 88 | 94.9% | 90 |
| 2000 | 95.6% | 89 | 97.5% | 91 |
| 2010 | 96.9% | 90 | 98.6% | 92 |
How we calculate it
Death rate m(x, t) for age x in year t = deaths at that age in that year ÷ person-years lived
Survival S = exp( − Σ m(age then, that year) × time spent )
For someone born in 1990, that means the age-40 rate in 2030 and the age-60 rate in 2050.
Death rates come from World Population Prospects 2024 by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: estimates up to 2023, the medium-variant projection after that. After 2100 we keep the 2100 rates, and above 100 we use the 100+ rate. We integrate in pieces split at every New Year and birthday; without a birth month, we assume 1 July. All probabilities assume you are alive today.
To keep the page light we store 2026 and every fifth year from 2030 to 2100 and interpolate on a log scale in between. Compared with using every single year, results differ by less than 0.1 percentage points. Period life expectancy computed from the same data matches the UN’s published figures to two decimals.
Calculated on October 9, 2026. Population averages, not a prediction of one person’s lifespan or a medical judgement.
Compared with national statistics
| Country | Official, men / women | UN WPP 2024, men / women |
|---|---|---|
| South Korea (Statistics Korea life table) | 80.8 / 86.6 | 81.3 / 87.3 |
| United States (CDC NCHS) | 76.5 / 81.4 | 77.0 / 82.0 |
| Japan (MHLW abridged life table) | 81.09 / 87.13 | 81.8 / 87.9 |
UN figures run 0.5–0.8 years higher. Yet Korea’s chance of reaching 80 is lower in the UN data (men 62.5% vs 64.4%, women 80.0% vs 82.2%), so the gap comes mostly from ages 90 and above. Below 60 the two sources are almost identical.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance that a man born in 1990 in the United States is alive in 2050?
For a man born in 1990 in the United States and alive on October 9, 2026, the chance of seeing 1 January 2050 is about 92.1%. For a woman it is 94.9%. We apply the UN World Population Prospects 2024 death-rate projections along each birth year.
How long will people born in 1990 live on average?
A man born in 1990 in the United States and alive today has about 48.0 years left on average, and half of the men born that year will pass 88. For women it is 51.0 years, with half passing 90. Because this cohort view includes future improvements, it is longer than the period life expectancy governments publish.
Which data does this use?
Death rates by country, sex and single year of age (mx) from World Population Prospects 2024 by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: estimates up to 2023 and medium-variant projections for 2024–2100. It is the only public dataset that covers 237 countries and areas in one consistent method and includes future improvements.
Why do the numbers differ slightly from my country’s official statistics?
The UN adjusts every country’s data with one method, so its figures differ a little from national ones. For Korea in 2024, Statistics Korea gives life expectancy of 80.8 (men) and 86.6 (women); the UN gives 81.3 and 87.3. The UN’s chance of reaching 80 is actually slightly lower (men 62.5% vs 64.4%), so the gap is mainly at ages 90 and above.
What does “if death rates never changed” mean?
It assumes health and living standards stop improving and this year’s death rate at each age stays the same forever. That is how governments calculate published life expectancy (a period life table). Our main figure is a cohort view that includes the improvement the UN projects; the gap between the two is that improvement.
Does this predict how long I will live?
No. It is the average for people of the same country, sex and birth year. It ignores personal factors such as smoking, illness, income or region, and real chances vary a lot between people. Rare events like wars or pandemics, and the uncertainty of long-range projections, also apply.
Sources
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024. CC BY 3.0 IGO · population.un.org/wpp · R data package wpp2024
- Statistics Korea, 2024 Life Tables (released December 2025) · KOSIS
- CDC NCHS, Mortality in the United States, 2024 · cdc.gov
- Japan MHLW, Abridged Life Tables 2024 (令和6年簡易生命表) · mhlw.go.jp